Controlled Chaos

My wife and I are "suspense buffs" when it comes to catching TV serials.  We had discovered "24" much later then when it was originally aired - but once we "discovered" it - we got hooked. The site "hulu.com" had the entire set of past episodes and we spent nights watching the episodes one after another.  For those who are not familiar with "24" -- it is an American television series produced for the Fox network starring Kiefer Sutherland as Counter Terrorist Unit agent jack Bauer. Each 24-episode session covers 23 hours in the life of Bauer, using real time narration.

The other episode that is our favorite is "Castle" - a detective serial aired by ABC where the NYPD homicide detective Kate Bekkett (Stana Katic) goes around solving cases in NYC along with Richard Castle (Nathan Fillion).

Of the "Castle" episodes I have watched - one of my favorite was one where Bekkett and Castle unearth and of course foil a conspiracy to wage a war against the United States using applied "Chaos Theory" -- which termed as "Lynchpin Theory" in the episode.

For those who might not be familiar with the term "Chaos Theory" - it is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, sociology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a paradigm popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. One good theoretical illustration of the chaos theory is the "Butterfly Effect" - a term coined by Edward Lorenz - an atmospheric scientist.  "A wing flap by a large Butterfly in Brazil can cause a Tornado in Texas several weeks later". 

Coming back to the particular episode in "Castle" -- a very smart mathematician comes out with an applied model of Chaos Theory in socio-economic and political context where he can identify a "Lynchpin Event" - wherein by executing a seemingly low impact and low effort action you can trigger a series of events with increasing intensity which ultimately results in a major event with far reaching consequences.   

The CIA recruits the mathematician and he becomes the mastermind in identifying “Lynchpin Events” that the CIA executes to topple governments, cause the Arab Spring etc etc to serve the interest of the US government.

But the mathematician had also identified a “Lynchpin Event” – which can destroy the US. The event involves the killing of an innocent 5 year old daughter of a Chinese tourist on the US soil. The particular 5 year old happened to be the daughter of a Chinese citizen who works for the Chinese Treasury Department and instrumental in influencing the Chinese Government where to invest the government surplus. According to the “Lynchpin” events – as a result of killing – the bereaved father will stop advising against Chinese Government buying the US Treasury Bills – which will lead to weakening of the US dollar – inflation in the US – the US government ultimately going bankrupt – civil war in the US - the 3^rd world war – and eventually the US surrendering and getting dissolved as a nation.

A terrorist organization gets access to the “Lynchpin Event” that can destroy the US and the castle episode revolves around that.  Needless to say – Bekket and Castle foil the attempt of the attempt and saves the day.  

The above episode might have been a fiction. But if you do look at the history of the world, perhaps such "Lynchpin" events are a plenty. Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of the Austro-Hungarian Empire by the Serbs in 1914 sparked a series of events which led to the first world war that ultimately killed 17 million people world wide. 

Perhaps even in our own life we can see some "Lynchpin" events. 

For me it all started with the extra few pieces of chilly pickle I had consumed before boarding my train on my return journey to Kanpur (where I was attending college) after the mid term break. My mother had told me repeatedly not to consume those extra pieces of chilly pickles especially before boarding the train. But then those chilly pickles were so good that I could not resist my temptation and helped myself with as many as I can.

Soon after I boarded the train -- I realized that my system was not too receptive with those chilies and had to relieve myself more often -- actually make that many times more often -- than what I normally do. And if you are familiar with the Indian railway carriages -- each carriage (called compartments in Indian Railway lingo) has 2 toilets for perhaps 100 passengers if you happen to travel in the 2nd class. 

Perhaps many more had consumed chilly pickle that particular day and I had to travel a good 4 compartments before I could find a toilet that was not occupied. In that compartment there she was -- a dainty little high school student with pony tails and large innocent eyes.  Our eyes met right after I had relieved myself from those "chilly effect" and events followed one after another and now I am typing the blog "Controlled Chaos".

And I blame it on the "Chilly Pickles" - my "Lynchpin".